Modeling Key considerations of the data:

Imbalanced outcome: Only 0.7% of parts actually go on backorder.
Outliers and skewed predictors: Part quantities (stock, sales etc.) can be on very different scales.
Missing data: A few variables have data that are missing (not at random).
n>>p: There are many observations (1.9 million) relative to the number of predictors (22).


Implemented Models

Random forest estimators are used
Perform well with imbalanced data typically
Robust to outliers and the skewed predictors: Because they are using tree partitioning algorithms and not producing coefficient estimates, outliers and skewness are not as much of a concern as for other predictive models.
Down sampling: to account for the imbalanced outcome, we try down sampling the data of parts that didn't go on backorder.
We choose down sampling over other similar methods that resample the minority group (e.g. up sampling or SMOTE) as these are more computationally burdensome with a large sample size.

Dealing with missing data: The few variables with missing data had medians imputed, and a binary variable was created to indicate whether the observation had missing data, in hopes to account for the missing data not being random.


Validation

We use 10-fold cross-validation in order to tune model parameters (maximum number of variables to try and minimum leaf size), as well as compare model performance.

The ROC Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used as a validation metric because the outcome is so imbalanced. By looking at ROC curves, we may determine a cutoff threshold for classification after fitting the models, rather than naively assuming a threshold of 0.5.

import csv
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import os
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.model_selection import KFold
from sklearn.utils import resample
from sklearn.metrics import roc_curve, roc_auc_score, precision_recall_curve, confusion_matrix, accuracy_score

#----------Import and view the data-----------#

#Set working directory

#Import both datasets

#Combine into one dataset
#merged = pd.concat([a,b])

#first 5 entries

#---------- Basic Data Manipulation-----------#

#recode binary variables as 0 / 1 rather than No / Yes
for col in ['potential_issue',
'deck_risk',
'oe_constraint',
'ppap_risk',
'rev_stop',
'went_on_backorder']:
merged[col]=pd.factorize(merged[col])[0]

#remove the two rows of all NA's
merged=merged[pd.notnull(merged['national_inv'])]

#Change the -99 placeholder to NA for perf_6_month_avg and perf_12_month_avg
merged['perf_6_month_avg']=merged['perf_6_month_avg'].replace(-99, np.NaN)
merged['perf_12_month_avg']=merged['perf_12_month_avg'].replace(-99, np.NaN)

#define quantitative and categorical variable lists
quantvars=['national_inv',
'in_transit_qty',
'forecast_3_month',
'forecast_6_month',
'forecast_9_month',
'sales_1_month',
'sales_3_month',
'sales_6_month',
'sales_9_month',
'min_bank',
'pieces_past_due',
'perf_6_month_avg',
'perf_12_month_avg',
'local_bo_qty']

catvars=['potential_issue',
'deck_risk',
'oe_constraint',
'ppap_risk',
'rev_stop',
'went_on_backorder']

catpred=['potential_issue',
'deck_risk',
'oe_constraint',
'ppap_risk',
'rev_stop']

/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/IPython/core/interactiveshell.py:2728: DtypeWarning: Columns (0) have mixed types. Specify dtype option on import or set low_memory=False.
interactivity=interactivity, compiler=compiler, result=result)


Descriptive Statistics and Plots

I considered descriptive statistics and plots for the variables in the dataset. Some of the descriptive findings are:

Several predictors are skewed or have huge outliers
Part quantities (stock, sales etc.) can be on very different scales
Descriptively, backordered parts are on average associated with:
lower inventory
lower sales forecasts
worse sales history
more frequent potential risk flags
Several predictors are highly correlated
Especially the sales and forecast variables which are related and have overlap (e.g. 3 month sales history and 6 month sales history)

merged[quantvars].describe().transpose()

count mean std min 25% 50% 75% max
national_inv 242075.0 499.751028 29280.390793 -25414.0 4.00 15.00 81.00 12145792.0
lead_time 227351.0 7.923018 7.041410 0.0 4.00 8.00 9.00 52.0
in_transit_qty 242075.0 36.178213 898.673127 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 265272.0
forecast_3_month 242075.0 181.472345 5648.874620 0.0 0.00 0.00 4.00 1510592.0
forecast_6_month 242075.0 348.807304 10081.797119 0.0 0.00 0.00 12.00 2157024.0
forecast_9_month 242075.0 508.296301 14109.723787 0.0 0.00 0.00 20.00 3162260.0
sales_1_month 242075.0 51.478195 1544.678350 0.0 0.00 0.00 4.00 349620.0
sales_3_month 242075.0 172.139316 5164.243624 0.0 0.00 1.00 14.00 1099852.0
sales_6_month 242075.0 340.425414 9386.523492 0.0 0.00 2.00 30.00 2103389.0
sales_9_month 242075.0 511.775446 13976.702192 0.0 0.00 4.00 46.00 3195211.0
min_bank 242075.0 52.804693 1278.591177 0.0 0.00 0.00 3.00 303713.0
pieces_past_due 242075.0 1.824236 178.679263 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 79964.0
perf_6_month_avg 222974.0 0.779340 0.239060 0.0 0.70 0.85 0.97 1.0
perf_12_month_avg 224100.0 0.776331 0.232118 0.0 0.69 0.83 0.96 1.0
local_bo_qty 242075.0 0.843726 45.606626 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 6232.0
#---Quantitative variables-----#

#summary of quantitative variables
merged[quantvars].describe().transpose()

#means by backorder status
merged.pivot_table(values=quantvars,index=['went_on_backorder'])

# #boxplots of quantitative variables   //Uncomment to see outliers
# for col in quantvars:
#     print(col)
#     plt.boxplot(merged[col])
#     plt.show()

#---Categorical variables-----#

#Percentage of each categorical variable
print("percentage missing")
print("____________________")
for col in catvars:

print(col,": ",round(merged[col].mean()*100,2),"%" )

#Proportions of categorical predictors stratified by went_on_backorder
merged.pivot_table(values=(catpred),index=["went_on_backorder"])

#barplots of proportions stratified by went_on_backorder
for col in catpred:
noback=np.array(merged.pivot_table(values=(col),index=["went_on_backorder"]))[0]
yesback=np.array(merged.pivot_table(values=(col),index=["went_on_backorder"]))[1]
names = ('Not Backordered', 'Backordered')
y_pos = np.arange(2)
proportions = [noback,yesback]
plt.bar(y_pos, proportions, align='center', alpha=0.5)
plt.xticks(y_pos, names)
plt.ylabel('proportion')
plt.title("Proportion of %s by backorder status" % (col))
plt.show()

# Correction Matrix Plot of all variables
varnames=list(merged)[1:]
correlations = merged[varnames].corr()
fig = plt.figure()
cax = ax.matshow(correlations, vmin=-1, vmax=1)
fig.colorbar(cax)
ticks = np.arange(0,23,1)
ax.set_xticks(ticks)
ax.set_yticks(ticks)
ax.set_xticklabels(varnames,rotation=90)
ax.set_yticklabels(varnames)
plt.show()

percentage missing
____________________
potential_issue :  0.03 %
deck_risk :  80.18 %
oe_constraint :  0.02 %
ppap_risk :  11.86 %
rev_stop :  0.04 %
went_on_backorder :  1.11 %


Dealing with Missing Data

Three predictors have missing data:

lead_time (6% missing)
perf_6_month_avg (7.7% missing)
perf_12_month_avg (7.3% missing)


From comparing descriptive statistics of the complete dataset to the data with missing values, we find that the data is clearly not missing at random. For these three variables, we impute the medians for the missing observations. We also create an indicator variable for whether any variable was missing, in hope to help account for the non-randomness of the missing data.

Missing not at Random (MNAR): Two possible reasons are that the missing value depends on the hypothetical value (e.g. People with high salaries generally do not want to reveal their incomes in surveys) or missing value is dependent on some other variable’s value (e.g. Let’s assume that females generally don’t want to reveal their ages! Here the missing value in age variable is impacted by gender variable). With missing at random, it is safe to remove the rows (MAR), with MNAR, you would induce bias if you remove the rows. Whether or not it is random you can impute it. If it is MNAR you can impute the median/mean as you would for MAR, but you can also create an extra column to express the fat that the value was missing, as this might carry some information.

#View count/percentage of missing cells
tot=merged.isnull().sum().sort_values(ascending=False)
perc=(round(100*merged.isnull().sum()/merged.isnull().count(),1)).sort_values(ascending=False)
missing_data = pd.concat([tot, perc], axis=1, keys=['Missing', 'Percent'])
missing_data

Missing Percent
perf_6_month_avg 19101 7.9
perf_12_month_avg 17975 7.4
went_on_backorder 0 0.0
sales_6_month 0 0.0
national_inv 0 0.0
in_transit_qty 0 0.0
forecast_3_month 0 0.0
forecast_6_month 0 0.0
forecast_9_month 0 0.0
sales_1_month 0 0.0
sales_3_month 0 0.0
min_bank 0 0.0
sales_9_month 0 0.0
rev_stop 0 0.0
potential_issue 0 0.0
pieces_past_due 0 0.0
local_bo_qty 0 0.0
deck_risk 0 0.0
oe_constraint 0 0.0
ppap_risk 0 0.0
sku 0 0.0
#create a variable for any missing data
merged['anymissing']=(  pd.isnull(merged['perf_6_month_avg'] ) |
pd.isnull(merged['perf_12_month_avg'] ) |

'''
Compare complete data to data with any missing variables
> Means of quantitative variables
> Proportions of categorical variables
'''

##This allows you to see that the values are not missing at random.
merged.pivot_table(values=(quantvars),index=['anymissing'])

forecast_3_month forecast_6_month forecast_9_month in_transit_qty lead_time local_bo_qty min_bank national_inv perf_12_month_avg perf_6_month_avg pieces_past_due sales_1_month sales_3_month sales_6_month sales_9_month
anymissing
0 194.621247 373.299685 543.712796 36.747240 7.831527 0.877107 51.480635 369.933468 0.777906 0.77934 1.951344 51.434042 172.885525 345.178523 521.716016
1 27.979687 62.897440 94.864667 29.535731 12.583733 0.454060 68.260981 2015.165960 0.464449 NaN 0.340453 51.993613 163.428512 284.940370 395.734988
merged.pivot_table(values=(catvars),index=['anymissing'])

deck_risk oe_constraint potential_issue ppap_risk rev_stop stop_auto_buy went_on_backorder
anymissing
0 0.832164 0.000211 0.000363 0.114910 0.000238 0.025819 0.011499
1 0.447830 0.000000 0.000052 0.162086 0.002879 0.193759 0.006492
#impute the medians
merged=merged.fillna(merged.median())

#create a blank dataframe to fill
merged_pred=pd.DataFrame(data=None,index=merged.index)

#Define folds for  10-fold Cross Validation
kf = KFold(n_splits=10,shuffle=True,random_state=123)

#Define index of dataset (to help in data sepparations within folds)
ind=merged.index

#----------fit models and product predictions in each fold----------#

for train_index, test_index in kf.split(merged):

#Define Training data
merged_train=merged[ind.isin(train_index)]
y_train=merged_train['went_on_backorder']
X_train=merged_train.drop(['sku','went_on_backorder'],axis=1)

#Define Test data
merged_test=merged[ind.isin(test_index)]
y_test=merged_test['went_on_backorder']
X_test=merged_test.drop(['sku','went_on_backorder'],axis=1)

#Define down-sampled training data
train_majority = merged_train[y_train==0]
train_minority = merged_train[y_train==1]
n_minority = len(train_minority)
train_majority_downsampled = resample(train_majority,
replace=False,
n_samples=n_minority,
random_state=123)
train_downsampled = pd.concat([train_majority_downsampled, train_minority])
y_train_downsampled = train_downsampled['went_on_backorder']
X_train_downsampled = train_downsampled.drop(['sku','went_on_backorder'],axis=1)

#---------------------------------------------------------------#
#Function to fit models
def fitrandomforests(n_est,maxfeat,minleaf):

#names of model predictions based on tuning parameter inputs
varname= "pred_nest%s_feat%s_leaf%s" % (n_est,maxfeat,minleaf)
varname2= "pred_down_nest%s_feat%s_leaf%s" % (n_est,maxfeat,minleaf)

#Fit a Random Forest model
rf=RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=n_est,
max_features=maxfeat,
min_samples_leaf=minleaf)
rf.fit(X_train,y_train)
preds=rf.predict_proba(X_test)[:,1]
merged_test[varname]=preds

#Fit a Random Forest model on downsampled data
rfd=RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=n_est,
max_features=maxfeat,
min_samples_leaf=minleaf)
rfd.fit(X_train_downsampled,y_train_downsampled)
predsd=rfd.predict_proba(X_test)[:,1]
merged_test[varname2]=predsd
#---------------------------------------------------------------#

#Tuning parameter grids

#number of trees (more is better for prediction but slower)
n_est=50
#maximum features tried
maxfeatgrid=[3,5,7]
#Minimum samples per leaf
minleafgrid=[5,10,30]

#fit models
for feat in maxfeatgrid:
for leaf in minleafgrid:
fitrandomforests(n_est,feat,leaf)

#Combine predictions for this fold with previous folds
merged_pred = pd.concat([merged_pred,merged_test])

#drop NA's from dataframe caused by the method for combining datasets from each loop iteration
merged_pred=merged_pred.dropna()

/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
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/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
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/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
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/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
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/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:51: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:59: SettingWithCopyWarning:
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy

#View AUC for each model and each tuning parameter specification
for feat in maxfeatgrid:
for leaf in minleafgrid:
#Random forest for given tuning parameters
varname1="pred_nest50_feat%s_leaf%s" % (feat,leaf)
rocscore1=roc_auc_score(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],merged_pred[varname1])
print( round(rocscore1,4 ) , varname1 )
#Down Sampled Random Forest for given tuning parameters
varname2="pred_down_nest50_feat%s_leaf%s" % (feat,leaf)
rocscore2=roc_auc_score(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],merged_pred[varname2])
print( round(rocscore2,4) , varname2 )

#ROC Curves for top performing models

#Define false positive rates/true positive rates / thresholds
#Best random forest model
fpr, tpr, thresholds = roc_curve(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],
merged_pred['pred_nest50_feat3_leaf5'])
#Best down sampled random forest model
fpr2, tpr2, thresholds2 = roc_curve(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],
merged_pred['pred_down_nest50_feat7_leaf5'])

#AUC for best Random Forest and Random Forest Down sampled Models
roc_auc=roc_auc_score(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],
merged_pred['pred_nest50_feat3_leaf5'])
roc_auc2=roc_auc_score(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],
merged_pred['pred_down_nest50_feat7_leaf5'])

%matplotlib inline
#plot ROC Curve
plt.title('ROC Curve')
plt.plot(fpr, tpr, 'b', label='RF (AUC = %0.3f)'% roc_auc)
plt.plot(fpr2, tpr2, 'g', label='RF Downsampled (AUC = %0.3f)'% roc_auc2)
plt.plot([0,1],[0,1],'r--', label='Random Guess')
plt.legend(loc='lower right')
plt.xlim([0,1])
plt.ylim([0,1])

(0, 1)


merged_pred.head()

anymissing deck_risk forecast_3_month forecast_6_month forecast_9_month in_transit_qty lead_time local_bo_qty min_bank national_inv ... pred_nest50_feat7_leaf30 pred_nest50_feat7_leaf5 rev_stop sales_1_month sales_3_month sales_6_month sales_9_month sku stop_auto_buy went_on_backorder
9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 ... 0.001133 0.000186 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3286325 0.0 0.0
21 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 2.0 265.0 ... 0.000000 0.000000 0.0 2.0 14.0 29.0 46.0 3289088 0.0 0.0
22 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 ... 0.000028 0.000010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3289182 0.0 0.0
33 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 ... 0.000618 0.000460 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3291956 0.0 0.0
35 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 ... 0.000431 0.000020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3292280 0.0 0.0

5 rows × 42 columns

merged_pred["lead_time"].mean()

7.9277000929464005

merged_pred["forecast_9_month"].max()/

3162260.0

merged_pred["revenue"] = 300 + 200*(merged_pred["forecast_9_month"]/100)

merged_pred["revenue"]  =merged_pred["revenue"].apply(lambda x: 1000 if x>1000 else x)
merged_pred["cost"] = -2 - merged_pred["lead_time"] - merged_pred["revenue"]*.07

merged_pred["cost"].hist()

<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1a29603ac8>


# merged_pred["revenue"].mean()

b = 0.05
frame = pd.DataFrame(index=list(range(100)))
frame["threshold"] = 0
frame["tpr"] = 0
frame["fpr"] = 0
frame["fnr"] = 0
frame["tnr"] = 0

frame["tpr"] = 0
frame["fpr"] = 0
frame["fnr"] = 0
frame["tnr"] = 0

frame["cb_tn"] = 0
frame["cb_tp"] = 0
frame["cb_fp"] = 0
frame["cb_fn"] = 0

for i, b in enumerate(np.arange(0.0, 1.01, 0.01)):
print(i, b)
merged_pred["new_pred"] = merged_pred['pred_down_nest50_feat7_leaf5'].apply(lambda x: 1 if x< (1-b) else 0)
print(len(merged_pred[merged_pred["new_pred"]==1]))
profit = merged_pred[merged_pred["new_pred"]==1]["revenue"].mean()
cost = merged_pred[merged_pred["new_pred"]==1]["cost"].mean()

print(profit,cost)

confusion_mat = confusion_matrix(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],merged_pred["new_pred"])

TN = confusion_mat[0][0]
FP = confusion_mat[0][1]
TP = confusion_mat[1][1]
FN = confusion_mat[1][0]

frame.loc[i, "TN"] = TN
frame.loc[i, "FP"] = FP
frame.loc[i, "TP"] = TP
frame.loc[i, "FN"] = FN

TPR = TP/(TP+FN)
# Specificity or true negative rate
TNR = TN/(TN+FP)
# Precision or positive predictive value
PPV = TP/(TP+FP)
# Negative predictive value
NPV = TN/(TN+FN)
# Fall out or false positive rate
FPR = FP/(FP+TN)
# False negative rate
FNR = FN/(TP+FN)
# False discovery rate
FDR = FP/(TP+FP)
frame.loc[i, "threshold"] = 1-b
frame.loc[i, "tpr"] = TPR
frame.loc[i, "fpr"] = FPR
frame.loc[i, "fnr"] = FNR
frame.loc[i, "tnr"] = TNR

## binary it only makes sense one way
frame.loc[i, "cb_tn"] = 0
frame.loc[i, "cb_tp"] = profit
frame.loc[i, "cb_fp"] = cost
frame.loc[i, "cb_fn"] = 0


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0
nan nan

/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:45: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in long_scalars
/Users/dereksnow/anaconda/envs/py36/lib/python3.6/site-packages/ipykernel/__main__.py:53: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in long_scalars

frame.head()

threshold tpr fpr fnr tnr cb_tn cb_tp cb_fp cb_fn TN FP TP FN
0 1.00 0.990327 0.999925 0.009673 0.000075 0.0 399.156199 -37.868745 0.0 18.0 239369.0 2662.0 26.0
1 0.99 0.959077 0.999227 0.040923 0.000773 0.0 399.095624 -37.865257 0.0 185.0 239202.0 2578.0 110.0
2 0.98 0.909598 0.997970 0.090402 0.002030 0.0 399.015322 -37.861206 0.0 486.0 238901.0 2445.0 243.0
3 0.97 0.852679 0.996462 0.147321 0.003538 0.0 398.916971 -37.856240 0.0 847.0 238540.0 2292.0 396.0
4 0.96 0.803943 0.994465 0.196057 0.005535 0.0 398.821986 -37.853132 0.0 1325.0 238062.0 2161.0 527.0
# frame["cb_tp"] = 300
# frame["cb_fp"] = -40

frame["p"] = 1 - frame["threshold"]

frame["exp_val"] = frame["p"]*(frame["tpr"]*frame["cb_tp"] + frame["fnr"]*frame["cb_fn"]) + frame["threshold"]*(frame["tnr"]*frame["cb_tn"] + frame["fpr"]*frame["cb_fp"])

## So the best cutoff is around 50
## With a balanced dataset better threshold estimation
## This woud change depending on the moddel used.
frame[["threshold","exp_val"]].plot()

<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x1a1d4a9e48>


#you can maybe work direclty with precision and recall to creat what you wan tot.a

#define precision, recall, and corresponding threshold for model with highest AUC
precision, recall, threshold = precision_recall_curve(merged_pred['went_on_backorder'],
merged_pred['pred_down_nest50_feat7_leaf5'])

#plot Precision and Recall for a given threshold.
plt.title('Precision and Recall')
plt.plot(threshold,precision[1:],'purple',label='Precision')
plt.plot(threshold,recall[1:],'orange', label='Recall')
plt.axvline(x=.05,linestyle=":")
plt.legend(loc=2,bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 1))
plt.xlim([0,1])
plt.ylim([0,1])
plt.ylabel('Precision and Recall Values')
plt.xlabel('Threshold')

<matplotlib.text.Text at 0x1a25fff668>